Launching the Early Markers of Democratic Erosion Toolkit

Autocratization is rarely abrupt.

More often, it unfolds gradually - through subtle shifts and normalized practices that are difficult to detect until democratic erosion has already taken hold.

In 2026, Action for Democracy partnered with the Argentinian civil society organization Asuntos del Sur to develop the Early Markers of Democratic Erosion toolkit - a crowdsourced early warning system designed to help organizations identify, analyze, and respond to early signs of democratic backsliding.

Building on the framework introduced by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt in How Democracies Die, the initiative adapts academic insights into a practical, practitioner-oriented tool informed by consultations with civil society actors across multiple regions.

The toolkit focuses on six key dimensions where democratic erosion tends to emerge:

• domestic political context;

• mobilization and legitimation of ideological projects;

• participation in global anti-democratic networks;

• party system competitiveness;

• reforms that concentrate power;

• and limitations on civil and political liberties.

Rather than ranking countries, it provides methodological guidance to help organizations interpret evidence, understand risks in their specific context, and take informed action.

Crucially, the toolkit is meant not only to identify problems, but to help organizations take action. As Matías Bianchi, Director of Asuntos del Sur, explains, “This is not meant to be just an academic product, but a tool for political action within countries and the creation of a global community of practice to exchange strategies, tools and best practices.” By spotting risks early, organizations can focus their efforts, act sooner, and strengthen their advocacy before democratic decline becomes harder to reverse.

A pilot deployed in Spain, Colombia, Argentina, and Ghana yielded both promising and unexpected insights. In Colombia, for example, threats to democracy were found to stem less from the executive and more from decentralized violence targeting independent media and reinforcing extremist actors, including networks linked to religious groups and organized crime. This led the team to refine a methodology that had initially focused more narrowly on government-led threats. 

The pilot also demonstrated how the tool can drive public engagement: in Spain and Ghana, journalists and media organizations began using the findings, helping bring democratic erosion into the public agenda. 

In Colombia, the toolkit is incorporated by the Alliance for Democracy, a coalition bringing together more than 50 organizations across the country - including trade unions, media outlets, activist groups, and academic institutions.

A similar process is now underway in Argentina, underscoring the toolkit’s ability to convene broad democratic coalitions around early warning and action. At the same time, the research highlighted an emerging international dimension, with similar narratives and strategies appearing across countries - pointing to growing coordination among authoritarian actors.

The toolkit was released as an open-access resource on March 26 in Argentina, marking the 50th anniversary of the military coup led by Jorge Rafael Videla. 

At a time of rising polarization and transnational authoritarian influence, early warning alone is not enough. What is needed are tools that translate insight into action - this is what Asuntos del Sur and Action for Democracy have set out to build.

The Early Markers of Democratic Erosion toolkit is now publicly available and can be accessed here.