Introduction

Welcome to the second DDC World Democracy Special Briefing

Drawing on both proprietary research and input from a global network of analysts and experts, this briefing offers you a comprehensive analysis of the recent Venezuelan presidential elections, highlighting the implications of electoral fraud, suppression tactics, and international reactions for democracy in Latin America and beyond. 

In the coming weeks, Action for Democracy is organizing an exclusive webinar for DDC members, to provide a comprehensive analysis on the ramifications of the July 28 Venezuelan presidential elections. The webinar will feature Robeto Patiño, Venezuelan social entrepreneur and democracy and human rights activist. 

We’ll be in touch with the date and further details soon.

Executive Summary

The July 28 Venezuelan presidential election was marked by voter suppression, intimidation, and widespread fraud. Despite several independent polls showing opposition candidate Edmundo González leading by a significant margin, the National Electoral Council (CNE) declared incumbent Nicolás Maduro the winner, without releasing verifiable evidence. Independent tabulations and civil society observers, however, showed Gonzalez with a clear lead, yet the Maduro regime insisted on using violent tactics to distort the truth of the results in their favor.

The Maduro government employed armed groups to intimidate voters and obstruct election transparency, leading to violent confrontations and arrests. International observers were largely barred, further undermining the election’s legitimacy. 

Action for Democracy (A4D) has been instrumental in exposing the fraud, and ensuring that both international and regional powers express their support for a peaceful democratic transition. To these ends, A4D also commissioned a poll in Brazil that showed widespread belief in the rigging and expectations for regional action, and consequently helped inform the Brazilian administration’s position. Despite Maduro’s control over the military and judiciary, international pressure is growing for a democratic transition that is responsive to the will of the people of Venezuela as indicated by the legitimate election results.

As Venezuela faces one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world, the political instability threatens to worsen the exodus of millions of refugees. A4D continues to work on facilitating a transparent vote counting and a peaceful transition aligned with the will of the Venezuelan people.

Background Briefing – Venezuelan Presidential Elections

The Venezuelan presidential election held on July 28 witnessed unprecedented levels of violent voter and witness suppression, intimidation tactics, and massive electoral fraud. The presidential elections were anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the country, with the opposition candidate Edmundo González expected to achieve a resounding victory over incumbent President Nicolás Maduro. However, despite all independent data indicating an overwhelming opposition lead, the National Electoral Council (CNE) declared Maduro the winner, claiming a 7% lead without providing any verifiable evidence. 

Months of polling, exit surveys, and independent tabulations had consistently predicted that the opposition would achieve a clear victory. Edison Research's exit poll showed González winning 65% of the vote, with Maduro capturing only 31%. Similarly, parallel vote counts conducted by civil society groups indicated González's vote share at 66%, aligning with pre-election projections from local firm Meganalisis. 

These major discrepancies, and the Maduro regime’s refusal to release the full vote count and provide access to vote tallies offer irrefutable evidence of massive electoral fraud and manipulation. These actions undermine the democratic process and the fundamental rights of the Venezuelan people.

Reports from across Venezuela highlighted systematic attempts to suppress opposition votes. Electoral observers were harassed or ejected from polling stations, and in several areas, voting machines were seized before results could be transmitted or verified. In the capital city of Caracas and other regions, pro-government motorcycle gangs, known as 'collectives', engaged in violent intimidation against voters. Such tactics further complicated the already fraught environment, with armed confrontations resulting in multiple deaths and dozens of arrests. 

International observers were notably absent, with only a few small delegations from the United Nations and Carter Center permitted to oversee the vote. The Carter Center was eventually forced to leave under threat, and calls for transparency were ignored by the Maduro government. The international community, particularly the Biden administration and several Latin American governments, has condemned the Maduro regime’s refusal to publish detailed, precinct-level results, calling the election an blatant violation of democratic norms. U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have emphasized the need for an auditable election process, with Republican Senator Marco Rubio decrying the event as “the most predictable and ridiculous sham election in modern history.” 

Meanwhile, opposition leader María Corina Machado and candidate Edmundo González have made calm but determined calls for the peaceful recognition of their victory, asserting that the tallies they obtained represent the true will of the people. Opposition sources revealed they have access to around 73% of the tally sheets, which show González winning decisively with 6.2 million votes compared to Maduro’s 2.8 million. This margin proves a mathematically irreversible victory for the opposition, and provides further proof of widespread electoral fraud.

Despite such clear evidence, the Maduro regime, backed by Venezuela’s military forces and  Venezuelan Supreme Court of Justice, which upheld the Maduro regime’s victory, continues to claim legitimacy. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino publicly reaffirmed the military’s “unconditional support” for Maduro, signaling that the government intends to retain power through coercion, widespread violence, and control over key institutions. 

This, coupled with the CNE’s fabricated results, has left the country teetering on the edge of a deeper political crisis, with violent protests erupting across several cities. According to human rights organizations, dozens people have been killed in clashes between protestors and government forces, and over 130 individuals have been detained in connection with the demonstrations.

International reactions have been mixed. While most democratic nations have condemned Maduro’s actions and called for transparent elections, Venezuela's key allies—including Russia, China, and Iran—have endorsed the results, once again underscoring the global polarization between democratic and autocratic regimes. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s Foreign Minister announced the expulsion of diplomats from several Latin American countries that voiced concerns over the election, exacerbating tensions in the region.

Summary of A4D Activities

Within the many efforts to counter authoritarian, nationalist, and anti-European movements during the elections, Action for Democracy (A4D) focused on increasing the voting turnout of a specific segment of the population: EU nationals living in a different state from their citizenship.

To facilitate the international and regional recognition of the massive electoral fraud committed by the Maduro regime, Action for Democracy commissioned a poll in Brazil, aiming to scope Brazilians' views on the presidential election in Venezuela and the Brazilian government's position. 

The results showed that 63% of Brazilians believed that the election was indeed rigged, and Edmundo Gonzales was the true winner at the ballot, with only 15% believing Maduro’s claim to victory. The poll revealed that a 71% super-majority of Brazilians expect Lula to take action to lead multi-national action to defend Venezuela's democracy.

Despite the military's support for Maduro and the decision of the Venezuelan Supreme Court of Justice, which validated his victory, Brazilians show a broad rejection of the idea that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) should support Maduro, despite his popular origins and left-wing alignment. 

According to the survey, the majority of those interviewed express skepticism regarding the Venezuelan government's arguments to justify Maduro's victory: 73% of those who identify themselves to the left, 75% of centrists and 79% of right-wingers do not believe the official narrative.

João Francisco Meira, founding partner of the Vox Populi Institute, explains that the Brazilian population realizes that something wrong happened in Venezuela. “There is a very clear perception that Maduro’s self-proclaimed victory is not supported by credible evidence. The same survey confirms that the vast majority of the population does not agree with, does not believe in the Venezuelan government’s claims. And, therefore, they support the Brazilian position that it is necessary to see the results,” he concludes.

Forecasting

With Venezuela already facing one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world, with 7.7 million Venezuelans displaced globally, the political situation is likely to worsen. Any prolonged instability could further accelerate the exodus of Venezuelan refugees, many of whom have crossed the treacherous Darien Gap and reached the U.S.-Mexico border in record numbers. The humanitarian toll continues to rise, with millions more likely to flee as Venezuela’s political and economic situation deteriorates.

On the 4th of September, Colombian Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo announced that the presidents of Colombia, Mexico and Brazil would meet with Nicolás Maduro to mediate and find solutions to the political crisis in Venezuela. The meeting offers a chance to craft an internationally mediated direct transition arrangement that include guarantees for all political actors, fostering a normalized and inclusive political environment, and a peaceful democratic transition of power.

The Maduro regime’s decision to fabricate the election results and suppress the true will of the Venezuelan people is an alarming reminder of the lengths autocratic leaders will go to maintain power. Action for Democracy strongly condemns the electoral fraud committed by the Venezuelan government and urges the international community to apply maximum pressure to ensure the accurate, transparent counting of votes and a peaceful democratic transition. The Venezuelan people have spoken clearly, and their voice must not be silenced by violence and authoritarianism.